Mengenal Decoupling dan Imbas Global

Istilah decoupling sebenarnya baru mulai mencuat dalam tahun-tahun belakangan ini, pada prinsipnya decoupling menggambarkan terjadinya satu pemisahan antara ekonomi beberapa negara yang dahulunya memiliki keterikatan yang kuat.

Decoupling tidak lepas dari pengertian negara maju dan negara berkembang, tidak lepas pula dari outsourcing strategy yang banyak diimplementasikan oleh korporasi global. Decoupling juga sangat erat dengan kekuatan ekonomi Amerika sebagai pasar ekspor terbaik bagi negara yang memiliki produk bagus dan kompetitif di pasar global. Terakhir, decoupling juga erat kaitannya dengan kemajuan teknologi komunikasi dan internet yang telah membuat transaksi pasar keuangan Amerika menjadi lahan menjanjikan bagi trader di seluruh penjuru dunia.

Di tahun 2007, banyak pihak mengatakan bahwa ekonomi Uni Eropa telah menjadi bagian yang tidak terikat dengan ekonomi Amerika, telah terjadi decoupling sehingga pengaruh kedua belahan regional terhadap pertumbuhan dan kondisi masing-masing belahan menjadi tidak penting lagi. Begitu juga, ada pendapat yang mengatakan bahwa Cina telah sedemikian perkasa sehingga proses decoupling dengan ekonomi Amerika telah terjadi secara alamiah. Namun sejarah kejatuhan ekonomi Amerika di awal 2008, telah mengatakan lain, minimal kondisi bursa di berbagai belahan dunia mengalami imbas negatif dengan merosotnya indeks di bursa2 Amerika.

Jadi? Apakah decoupling hanya bicara soal ekonomi riil dan tidak berlaku di dalam industri keuangan global? No sir... nope...
Tepatnya, klaim terjadinya decoupling yang lalu tidak akurat dan terbukti tidak valid di dalam situasi ekonomi Amerika mengalami turbulensi yang signifikan.

Decoupling atau recoupling atau coupling - menurut saya ini bukanlah istilah yang bagus untuk menggambarkan ekonomi global maupun ekonomi regional. Harus dipahami bahwa globalisasi sudah mengurat dan mengakar ke dalam sendi-sendi ekonomi di seluruh belahan dunia. Sehingga tidak perlu adanya strategy khusus untuk menciptakan decoupling, namun tidak perlu pula memaksakan recoupling melalui economic partnership agreement...

Demikian pula dengan ekonomi tanah air Indonesia, decoupling belum menjadi bagian penting dalam pembahasan situasi ekonomi, tapi disadari atau tidak imbas global punya pengaruh penting dalam pembentukan situasi ekonomi tanah air. Decoupling mungkin tidak penting buat mengukur kinerja ekonomi Indonesia, namun perlu diketahui bahwa istilah ini lahir untuk menyatakan bahwa ekonomi global bukan untuk dilawan dan dikalahkan namun untuk dijadikan teman pembawa berkah.

Amin? Amin!

World Economic Forum 2008 - The Davos Question

Sudah pernah dengar tentang The Davos Question?
Ada hal yang menarik pada pertemuan tahunan World Economic Forum 2008 yang diselenggarakan di Davos, Switzerland awal tahun ini, dimana forum ini melakukan experiment dengan menggunakan YouTube sebagai media untuk menyampaikan questionnaire dimana response juga menggunakan media yang sama.

Dari hasil search dengan menggunakan kata Davos di YouTube, ada ratusan postingan video yang terkait dengan kata ini dan cukup banyak yang di upload akhir2 ini sebagai response dari The Davos Question. Menurut berita di World Economic Forum, beberapa yang turut mengirim video responses adalah, President Shimon Peres of Israel, President Abdoulaye Wade of Senegal, President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan; mantanUS Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger dan rock star Bono. Terus terang saya juga belum melihat video response tersebut, tapi posting ini juga berfungsi sebagai reminder saya untuk melihat video tersebut pada kesempatan mendatang.

Ini salah satu video yang telah dilihat lebih dari satu juta kali dengan komentar berjumlah ribuan. Ini sungguh luar biasa karena minat pengguna YouTube untuk melihat video ini melebihi beberapa video musik atau event yang sedang populer.



Berminat untuk turut berpatisipasi?

Inside Yogya and the Solo Soul

I got an image from my four days trip to Yogyakarta-Solo (Central Java, Indonesia) some time last month, which i tried to post to www.jpgmag.com theme of Bird's Eye. This image was the only shot that was taken on high-angle, whilst exploring 15mm FishEye lens on human interest subject. An old lady selling rice-with-egg, in a banana tree leaves, in front of one of the entrance gates of local market Klewer, Solo, Central Java. Yes, Indonesia. The complete images during my one day trip to Solo, titled The Soul of Solo, will also be posted at the same site, once i am done with self selection of the pictures. Three of them are posted here.

Also, I have posted in my multiply account a complete 24 set of pictures of the first part of the trip: Inside Yogyakarta (http://www.epurwoko.multiply.com/). It was about the regular people of Yogya on their regular activity in regular places, mostly local-original market. Below are some of them.

Sharing these images to you bloggers.

http://www.jpgmag.com/photos/336687

Globally Local - Locally Global

A few weeks ago, I wrote a comment in one of Indonesian blog about posting article in English and Bahasa. He wrote that writing in Bahasa is much easier but he wants to reach more readers for particular stories. So I commented to try writing in both languages. Bahasa for something that simple, merely Indonesian and too local. At the end I said be globally local and locally global. GLLG is a common term in internet and portal world. This four words actually represent a global vision, bringing something global to local people and bringing something local to global people.

Think about McDonald and Kentucky Fried Chicken, is it a GL or LG? In my case, GLLG!
When I am in Jakarta, it is GL and it is LG when I am in Tokyo. I guess I am hungry! Anyone wants to eat?

Japan Indonesia EPA Part 2 - Energy Trade and Cool Earth 50

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono signed a bilateral free trade agreement or the EPA on Monday, August 20, 2007 which will take effect next year. This is the sixth EPA for Japan with ASEAN economies after Singapore, Malaysia the Philippines, Thailand and Brunei.

I understand that one of the most important issues in this EPA is the tariff and barrier in trading sector. Unfortunately, I have less interest to talk about this issue. In short, any FTA always aims to create a better trading environment by reducing restrictions and barriers. I would say this is a classic premise while the evidences show tough, hard and complicated rounds in most of FTA negotiations and implementations. We need more evidences to see whether this tariff and barrier issues could improve the trading sector between two countries in coming years.

On my view, energy trading and environmental issues are more important considering the fact that Indonesia is the 11th largest trading partner for Japan and the biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplier which accounts for around quarter of total Japan’s LNG import. Indonesia is important for Japan in its role for sustaining Japan's energy supply and due to its geographical position to support Japan’s energy supply route security as 90% of Japan's oil imports pass through the Malacca Straits.

LNG contracts, the development of coal-fired power plants in Indonesia and environmental issues

Most of LNG contracts between these two countries will expire in 2010 and the government of Indonesia (GoI) has showed its preference to place priority on the supply of natural gas to its domestic market as the impact of increasing demand of energy in domestic market and acute power problem. In the other side, the GoI also decided to continue implementing its national program ’10,000 MW’ by constructing (most of it) coal-fired power plants in several areas of Indonesia.

There is a strong interest from many related parties in Japan regarding the LNG contract asking the Japanese government to anticipate the status of LNG contract renewal. I believe that one of the major reasons for Japan to push the signing of this EPA is to get a better assurance regarding the status of its LNG supply. That is why Japan is very interested to support Indonesia in developing its alternative energy as this will reduce the incremental demand of LNG in Indonesia thus would give both countries a better position to renew its contract.

The GoI’s decision in developing its energy source is to use the coal-fired power plant. The coal-fired power plant is notorious in creating pollution and we can easily find the proof of environmental damage caused by coal mining. In simple words, coal pollutes when it is mined, transported to the power plant (through in-land, river and sea), stored, and burned. The worst thing having this power plant project is the fact that it will use low calories coal only!, simply because it is cheap and giving a large cut of firing cost. As a comparison, many developed countries still use coal-fired power plant with high calories (note: very expensive and scarce) coal that cause insignificant pollution during burning process.

So, what would be the best role for Japan to support Indonesia in term of the development of alternative energy source? I do hope that Japan will not support Indonesia by financing this low rank coal-fired power plant project. I read about the project of coal quality improvement factory in South Kalimantan sponsored by Japan, however I remain feeling skeptical about the commercial feasibility. Too expensive, slow progress, limited capacity and old technology. I strongly recommend Japan to support Indonesia in coal bed methane (CBM) exploration and exploitation research as its alternative energy source. Once the CBM becomes economically extract and transfer to energy, there would be less dependence of LNG in Indonesia and Japan may secure its LNG supply.

Second thing is about “Cool Earth 50” an initiative taken by Japan to promote halving global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 from recent levels. As a new framework after Kyoto Protocol, I honestly say this is a great step in order to reduce emissions. Both leaders agreed to use Cool Earth 50 as an umbrella for bilateral cooperation in environmental issues.

How one country with thousands MW low rank coal-fired power plant would participate in a movement of global emission reduction? (note: 500 megawatt power plant needs at least 1.4 million tons of high rank coal per year). Let’s see!

Originally posted in Unpublished Dream. First part only available in Unpublished Dream.